Manifesto

Most therapists see a therapist.

The Seattle Seahawks have almost as many coaches as players.

And even the most seasoned climber doesn’t summit Everest without a Sherpa.

You know why?

Because having a guide helps.

If you don’t know the way, a guide is indispensable.

But even if you’re an expert or well on your way, a guide can offer assurance, show you a few shortcuts and make sure you don’t stray off course.

We are guides.

And we help people navigate something far more compelling than a trail or path or investment opportunities and the market.

We don’t start a relationship by offering hot stock tips and patent-pending investment strategies.

We sit down and get to know our clients.

Where are they in their lives?

What makes them happy and fulfilled?

What do they want from their future?

Once we know where they are and where they want to go, we can set out on a journey to get there together.

And hey, if we decide we want to change where we’re going or take a different route, that’s okay too.

We’re expert guides, so we can help even the most sophisticated investor, but we pride ourselves on making the complicated easy to understand for everyone.

So we don’t put our arms around a client’s portfolio and drag it over to our side of the table and tell them we’ll take it from here.

We work with our clients to make sure they understand and are invested in the decisions we make.

We don’t sell our clients products; we help them make choices.

About the kind of life they want to live.

About when and how they want to retire.

And what kind of legacy they want to leave behind for their families, their communities, and the world.

We are Summit.

And we know it’s a bit cheesy, but darn it, we believe this to be true.

We guide our clients towards their dreams.

 

Have We Reached Peak Uncertainty?

Every year has its own set of risks, and 2025 is no exception. But before reacting to recent market turbulence, let’s take a step back to understand how we got here and what it means for your investments.

Doom and Gloom Headlines
Over the last 10 days, investors have faced a wave of unsettling news. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to its lowest level since November 2023. Warren Buffet’s annual letter revealed that he has increased his cash holdings. U.S. consumer spending declined in January for the first time since March 2023. The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDP Now model projects a decline in the first quarter, which, if accurate, would be the first contraction in GDP since 2022. Adding to the uncertainty, after a 30-day delay, President Trump announced that his administration would implement a 25 percent tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada starting March 4, with an additional 10 percent tariff on Chinese goods.

This level of uncertainty is unsettling for investors, as markets don’t like uncertainty. As a result, the S&P 500 has declined 6 percent in just a few weeks, with last year’s top-performing stocks leading the decline. While these drops impact portfolios, it’s important to step back and put things in perspective. Despite the negative headlines, the market is still only 6 percent below its all-time high and is back at levels seen in early January of this year.

Pockets of Strength
Despite the negative headlines, not all parts of the market are struggling. While technology and consumer cyclical stocks—last year’s big winners—have led the recent decline, other sectors are holding up well. Consumer staples, health care, and financial services have had stronger mid-single-digit returns. International stocks, as measured by the ACWI ex-USA Index, are up 6.3 percent. In addition, the U.S. Aggregate Bond Index is also up 2.7 percent this year. In short, diversification is proving its value again after a long period where it didn’t seem to help as much.

Market Corrections Happen Every Year
While market pullbacks never feel great, they do happen regularly:

Even in strong years, stock markets tend to experience declines in the 5 percent–10 percent range, and these corrections can actually be healthy.

Looking at history provides some perspective. In 2018, the S&P 500 declined in the first quarter, rallied mid-year, and then declined again in the fourth quarter amid trade wars and increasing interest rates. However, that set the stage for a strong recovery in 2019. Similarly, in 2022, the markets fell for three consecutive quarters before rallying in the fourth quarter, kicking off two years of strong returns. These examples highlight that short-term declines don’t necessarily indicate long-term trouble.

Opportunities in Volatility
Timing the market is extremely difficult, but periods of volatility often create opportunities. Warren Buffett famously advised investors to “be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful.” While this advice sounds simple, emotional reactions make it hard to follow. However, history shows that the best times to invest occur when market sentiment is at its worst.

While volatility can certainly continue and perhaps increase, upcoming economic data could help reassure investors that the economy remains on solid footing. Lower 10-year U.S. Treasury rates could lead to lower mortgage rates, providing additional support.

Now is a good time to revisit to your investment strategy. The market will always be dynamic, but staying adaptable, tuning out short-term noise, and keeping your long-term goals in focus are key. If market fluctuations create opportunities that don’t reflect actual economic fundamentals, investors should take advantage of them to enhance portfolios. Keep on keeping on.

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This material has been provided for general informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, nor as a solicitation or recommendation to buy or sell any security or investment product. Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining markets. Investments are subject to risk, including the loss of principal and there is no guarantee that any investing goal will be met. All indices are unmanaged, and investors cannot actually invest directly into an index. Unlike investments, indices do not incur management fees, charges, or expenses. Past performance is not a guarantee or indicative of future results.

Summit Wealth Management
3010 Harborview Drive | Suite 301 | Gig Harbor, WA 98335
253.858.2884 | 253.858.6110 fax | www.summitplans.com
Securities offered through Commonwealth Financial Network®, Member FINRA/SIPC.